Wahlen in Israel: Wird es eine rechte Koalition geben?

Für die zionistische Linke war der gestrige Tag ein Debakel sondersgleichen: Gerade einmal vier Sitze hat sie noch in der neuen Knesset. Die Wahlsieger ist klar. Sie heißen Benjamin Netanjahu und Itamar Ben-Gvir.

Ob beide allerdings wirklich eine Koalition bilden werden ist eine Frage, die sich heute zumindest Tovah Lazaroff in der Jpost stellt:

The Religious Zionist Party RZP was a helpful party for Netanyahu to campaign with on shared values of a greater land of Israel, Jewish sovereignty and opposition to Palestinian statehood. In reality, they present him with an unwieldy diplomatic nightmare.

The party calls for the full application of sovereignty over West Bank settlements or at the very least in the settlement blocs. 

Failing that it wants to move forward on de facto sovereignty in Judea and Samaria, including disbanding the IDF's civil administration and allowing Israeli miniseries to govern Israeli civilian life in the West Bank. 

The RZP wants to see the authorization of 70 West Bank outposts, which it calls "young communities," either as new settlements or as neighborhoods of existing ones. It opposes Palestinian development in Area C of the West Bank and wants the IDF to increase its demolitions of illegal Palestinian construction.

Then there is the issue of its support for Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount. These are only some of their issues, which also include harsher responses to Palestinian violence in the West Bank and death sentences 

It's likely to want to see some of these demands in its coalition agreement with Likud, but action on any of them would likely put Netanyahu on a collision course with US President Joe Biden who is opposed to all such actions, to say nothing of European Union opposition.

That is on top of the already existing objections to Ben-Gvir, whose victory speech was interrupted by calls of "death to terrorists," a slogan that critics worry was a toned-down version of "death to Arabs."

Unlike Netanyahu who excels at bending without folding, the RZP is likely to take die-hard stands on its issue, particularly given its large size, thereby extending and complicating the negotiations process.

It's likely that to circumvent RZP die-hard stands, Netanyahu could turn to the National Unity Party head Benny Gantz, who at 12 seats could be an alternative from a policy perspective. It's not an easy replacement, given that Gantz has repeatedly stated that he Is opposed to joining a Netanyahu coalition and their pasts attempt to sit together did not even last a year. 

Still, despite their enmity, Netanyahu has more in common with Gantz ideologically than with the RZP. 

When he was first elected in 2009, Netanyahu represented the hard right, but over time he has become one of the most moderate members of the nationalistic camp that he leads, even within his own party.

In a Gantz union, Netanyahu can continue to protest that he is a die-hard right-winger held back by the National Resilience Party. In a coalition with RZP, Netanyahu risks suddenly standing out as a centrist.

Smotrich told Channel 12 on Wednesday night, that he thought coalition talks could be quickly wrapped up.

The next weeks, however,  are likely to represent a game of protected political chicken between Netanyahu and RZP head Smotrich, in which the right-wing dream coalition could fall apart, as the two parties try to bring their differences.

Netanyahu of course could get over the first political crisis in the name of putting a government in place, by paying lip service to a coalition agreement with the RZP he can never fulfill in the next two years.

For that to work the RZP, will in the name of being in the government, likely have to agree, not to walk when it turns out those demands are not met.

At the end of the day, it has been divisions in the right-wing camp, not the strength of the Left, that have prevented a full right-wing government. The right-wing nationalistic camp is often united in values but divided on how to execute them.