Montag, 01.11.2021 / 02:54 Uhr

Tunesisches Szenario für den Sudan?

Von
Thomas von der Osten-Sacken

Proteste im Sudan 2019, Bildquelle: Wikimedia Commons

Im Sudan steht das Militär, das sich an die Macht geputscht hat, einer massiven Protestbewegung gegenüber, die Tag für Tag auf die Straßen mobilisiert, auch wenn es dauernd zu Verhaftungen und inzwischen auch Toten kommt.

Während EU und die USA den Putsch verurteilen und mit Sanktionen drohen und die Afrikanische Union sogar noch deutlichere Töne anschlägt, hoffen Saudi Arabien und die Emirate offenbar auf ein tunesisches Szenario. Dort hatte Präsident Kais Saied mit einem von den Golfstaaten unterstützen Coup die Macht übernommen.

Es geht bei alldem um Kontrolle um die Kontrolle des Roten Meeres aber auch um die Angst der Saudis und Emirate vor den Muslimbrüdern. Darüber schreibt Middle East Eye:

As the struggle plays out, the commanders are looking towards regional powers, namely Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt, which analysts say likely prefer a reliable and familiar military regime in their backyard as opposed to an uncertain civilian government.

"The coup is internally driven, but I don't think they [the military] would have done it without knowing they would have external support," Jacqueline Burns, a senior policy analyst with the RAND Corporation and former strategy adviser on Sudan at the US Department of State, told Middle East Eye."

Analysts told MEE that the UAE and Saudi Arabia see an opportunity in Sudan, where they have extensive ties with the generals, to deliver a blow to regional rivals, including Turkey and Qatar, which are trying to make inroads in the Horn of Africa region.

"Sudan is straight out of the Tunisia playbook," said Theodore Karasik, a senior adviser to consulting firm Gulf State Analytics, referencing the North African country where the government was recently ousted in what critics decry as a coup." (...)

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Gulf states, along with China and Russia, have all been trying develop ports and military bases in Sudan.

Doha recently bid against Emirati and Chinese firms to expand facilities at Sudan's port of Suakin, while Russia has been trying to set up a naval logistics base in the country.

Turkey's plan to lease Suakin island on the Red Sea from Khartoum and establish both a military and civilian presence a short distance from Saudi Arabia's coast stalled after the overthrow of Bashir, and ascent of generals closer to Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.  

In the lead-up to the military take-over in Khartoum, the focal point of increasing tensions had been Port Sudan, the country's main commercial artery which is owned by the military-controlled Sudan Sea Ports Corporation.