Montag, 20.05.2019 / 23:13 Uhr

Die USA spielen den Iran aus

Von
Thomas von der Osten-Sacken
Sie wissen nicht, was die US-Adminstration mit dem Iran vor hat und fragen sich gerade ein wenig ängstlich, ob sie es in Washington wirklich ernst meinen?
 
Geht denen in Teheran genau so. Und das ändert die alten Spielregeln ganz gewaltig.
 
Denn wirklich gute Karten haben die Ayatollahs nicht. Ganz im Gegenteil eher ziemlich miese und ganz schön viele Luschen, wenn der Gegner sich nicht mehr an die bislang geltenden Regeln hält. Und genau das passiert gerade.
 
Also schaut man sich um stellt fest: Sieht alles nicht gut aus. Weder im Libanon, wo der Hizbollah das Geld ausgeht noch in Syrien und dem Jemen.
 
Und die eigene Armee? Hat der Welt in Syrien vorgeführt, dass sie nichts taugt. Das ganze Militärzeugs, das man sich in den letzten Jahren zusammengeschraubt hat? Dürfte auch niemanden wirklich beeindrucken.
 
Die Kassen sind leer. Verbündete? Auch eher Fehlanzeige, außer solche, die von Zahlungen aus Teheran abhängen.
 
Kurzum: Sieht alles nicht so gut aus. Und was, wenn die USA jetzt wirklich seriös sind?

Die Trump-Administration spielt den Iran nämlich gerade ziemlich aus, meint zumindest Seth J. Frantzman:

In the complex game of wits being played between the Trump administration and the Iranian regime, it appears that the U.S. temporarily checked Iran’s usual behavior. Iran prefers bluster in rhetoric with a careful strategy of extending its influence in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen, knowing that any real battle with U.S. forces will result in Iranian defeat. Tehran can’t risk massive retaliation against its allies or the regime at home for fear that it will lead to instability and the destruction of all it has carefully built up in the last years. Iran is suffering from the effects of recent nationwide floods and from shortages due to sanctions, so it can’t afford a total war, and its allies in Iraq and Lebanon are in sensitive positions of power. In the past, Iran benefited from its opaque system of alliances and its ability to threaten western powers and attack U.S. forces with proxies, even seizing U.S. sailors, without fear of reprisal. It learned in the past that the U.S. preferred diplomacy, but the current administration appears to have put Tehran on notice.

The question is what can be learned from the escalating tensions. If Iran thinks Washington isn’t serious, or if it senses that domestic opposition to Washington’s saber-rattling is building, Iran may call America’s bluff. But if Iran thinks that Trump’s team really will retaliate, it will tread carefully in all the areas of the Middle East where U.S. allies and Iran’s proxies rub up against one another.

To understand the chessboard, we must look at the Middle East the way Iran does. Since the 1980s, Iran’s Islamic revolution has been increasing its influence in the region. This brought Iran into vicious conflict with Iraq in the 1980s, and for a while Iran saw few major geopolitical successes. However, the weakening of the Lebanese state and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003 created opportunities for Iran to exploit local militia allies and gain power. It did this in Lebanon through Hezbollah, an armed terrorist organization that has seats in the Lebanese parliament. It also did this in Iraq through a plethora of militias, many of whose leaders had served alongside the IRGC in the 1980s. Today those Shiite militias are called the Popular Mobilization Forces and they are an official paramilitary force of the Iraqi government. They have threatened the U.S., and U.S. intelligence allegedly showed them positioning rockets near U.S. bases earlier this month.